Should Seattle Expect To See More Big Weather Swings With Climate Change?
By Natalie Guevara, Seattle PI
Seattle experienced a weird weather streak for the early part of 2019.
January was warmer than usual. February was bitterly cold and snowy, which continued through the early part of March. Then, this week, winter ended with record-breaking warmth, not just for the season but for the whole month.
The first day of spring also started with a bang. By 1:30 p.m., temperatures climbed to 79 degrees yet again, tying the record high set on Tuesday for the month of March dating back to 1894. It was also the first time in recorded history that three March days in a row reached 75 degrees or higher.
With the sun shining down on the Emerald City this week, it’s easy to forget that about two weeks ago, snowflakes were falling. And a month ago, some of us were completely snowed in.
And though some are basking in the warmth of this week, it may be a bit short-lived. More typical spring temperatures were expected by the end of the week, with a chance for showers.
“People can put away their long johns, but they should leave their rain coats handy,” Nick Bond, Washington’s state climatologist, said.
The forecast high for Thursday is 59 degrees, which is still slightly warmer than usual, but a lot cooler than the start of the week, Chris Burke, meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Seattle office said.
As for whether the extreme swings from warm, to cold, to hot are related to climate change — well, that’s a good question, Bond said, and there’s not an easy answer.
“We’ve had fluctuations in the weather before and we’ll have them again,” he said. “It’s tough to figure out the nature of the variability … I think, for the most part, it’s hard to make the case that [the variability has] changed much, if any.”
The variability seen this last season was not limited to the Pacific Northwest. A “Polar Vortex” brought record-breaking cold to much of the midwest in late January, followed by some warmer days. Persistent weather patterns have delivered unusual weather this winter.
So, should we expect to see more of these whipsaws in temperatures? The answer is maybe … or maybe not.
“Our models are ambiguous there,” Bond said. “There is some evidence for, some evidence against. It’s a matter of legitimate scientific inquiry. If we’re going to have to deal with more extremes of both types, we’d like to know that.”
As for the extreme cold and snow in February, Bond said it does stand out.
“February is going to be remembered as really weird,” he said. “I believe it won’t just be remembered, but it will be remembered fondly.”