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Climate Change In The Northwest: What We Learned In 2021 and a Sociological Solution

By Katie Campbell and Angela King, KUOW

Record-setting heat, prolonged drought, severe flooding and, in these finals days of the year, sub-freezing cold and snow — 2021 will go down in the climatological history books.

What did climatologists learn?

And what needs to change about how they share those lessons?

Nick Bond is the Washington state climatologist. He, like other climate scientists, is adamant it’s not “too late” to do something about climate change.

“We can both mitigate it and adapt to it,” he says.

But to do that, he says we have to adjust how we think about the data.

Probalistic forecasting

Bond says to be more proactive in our response to climate change, we have to trade certainty for preparedness.

Consider the difference between these two statements:

  • The high on June 26 is expected to reach the triple digits. Emergency cooling centers may have space available for those in need.
  • The average temperature in June is rising. Long-term investments in shelters and housing may reduce the number of heat-related deaths.

This is an oversimplified example.

But Bond says the National Weather Service is working on improving forecast data and how that data is shared with the public.

“The point there is to try to figure out those sectors of society that are more vulnerable,” he says. “And try to figure out what we can do to make them more resilient to the changes that are already occurring and that are going to be just accelerating in the future.”

‘What does that really mean?’

“A lot of this is how we communicate what we’re seeing, so it is usable information,” Bond says.

Consider this statement, for example: “There’s higher odds than usual of lower-than-normal temperatures.”

Bond says information presented like that could understandably leave the general public wondering: “What does that really mean?”

The deadly June heatwave was an example of how poor communication can lead to long-term damage.

That heatwave killed hundreds of people across the region and cooked millions of shellfish alive.

Bond says the human toll, at least, did not have to be so high.

Forecasters knew there was a potential for something that severe before the heatwave was upon us, he explains. But in Bond’s opinion, not enough was done to get that message out to the public, because it wasn’t guaranteed.

That hesitancy likely cost lives, he says.

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