By Gillian Dohrn, Lauren Kirschman and William Poor, UW News

Climate models get a vote of confidence in a new UW study mapping tropical ocean temperature over time

Climate models help researchers understand how conditions are changing over time to forecast what is likely to happen in the future. Predicting extreme heat, drought or flooding years in advance can give people time to prepare, but the accuracy of these predictions varies. Scientists test models by asking them to recreate past climate and comparing those predictions with observational data. Although modern climate models get a lot of things right, they often fail to replicate recent temperature change in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a key region for global weather. This has concerned scientists, but a UW study published July 4 in JGR: Oceans offers a glimmer of hope. The researchers found that climate models could successfully replicate temperature trends in the equatorial Pacific when they expanded the window of observation by 20 years. Including more data allowed the models to better account for climate variability, which can create long-lasting fluctuations in temperature and precipitation that aren’t always indicative of a general trend.

For more information, contact senior author Matt Luongo, UW postdoctoral fellow in the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, & Ecosystem Studies and School of Oceanography at mluongo@uw.edu.

The other UW co-author is Kyle Armour. A full list of co-authors is included in the paper.