The Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies

Hi! My name is Lauren Frake and I am a rising junior studying atmospheric science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. This summer, I had the opportunity to work with Dr. Aaron Levine on a project evaluating SFS, NOAA’s beta seasonal forecast model, on its ability to predict ENSO-driven precipitation variability.

ENSO, or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a climate cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean that influences seasonal weather patterns across the globe. Because ENSO is the largest source of year-to-year climate variability, accurately forecasting it is important for seasonal climate prediction. My project focused on winter precipitation anomalies at forecast leads of around nine months. I worked with reforecast data, which involves running the model on past conditions so we can compare its predictions to what actually occurred. I spent much of my summer coding in Python and using statistical methods to compare SFS reforecasts with observations, helping me evaluate how well the model captures ENSO’s influence on winter precipitation.

I found that SFS does a good job reproducing the global precipitation patterns associated with ENSO. I also found that the model’s skill improves during stronger ENSO events and decreases when it struggles to predict the strength of the ENSO event itself. After removing the ENSO signal from the data, I explored whether other climate patterns could provide additional sources of predictability. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, an oscillation of wind direction in the stratosphere, showed promising results. This suggests that factors beyond ENSO may eventually help improve seasonal precipitation forecasts, even at these longer forecast leads.

Overall, this internship was an amazing opportunity that allowed me to gain hands-on research experience as well as connect with both mentors and peers in my field. I grew my coding, data analysis, and research communication skills, and I gained a better understanding of what conducting research is like. I am excited to bring these skills back to my home institution as I continue doing research and pursue graduate studies in the future.

Project Introduction

Research Poster