Listen to the latest episode of Climate One, titled “Kate Marvel on Fear, Wonder, and Leaving NASA”, wherever you get your podcasts. 

A super El Niño is building. It has already set temperature records in the key part of the ocean that forecasters watch. According to University of Washington Oceanographer Michael McPhaden, this El Niño cycle hasn’t even peaked yet, and seasonal forecast models “put this event in a league of its own.”

McPhaden says climate change makes its effects worse, turning heavy rains into extreme rainfall and severe droughts into extraordinary ones. Along the West Coast, warm water surges called Kelvin waves could raise sea levels by up to a foot this winter. Combined with king tides and stormy seas, that could bring increased coastal flooding and erosion. But because forecasters saw this El Niño coming, communities have a head start.

“There is time to prepare for the worst aspects of this event,” McPhaden says.