Malik Hall
Texas A&M University
Research Mentor: Aaron Levine
Project: Understanding Poor El Niño Predictions in Seasonal Forecast Models
Howdy! My name is Malik Hall and I am a junior Meteorology Major from Texas A&M University. This summer I worked with Dr. Aaron Levine to investigate confident El Niño forecasts made during the northern hemisphere spring where El Niño events did not occur in the following winter. I spent most of my time in Wallace Hall, just a few doors down from my mentor, which made it easy to ask questions as I worked on the project. I also had the flexibility to work from places like the local coffee shops in U-District or the UW library.
The beginning of this project was spent learning how to load the models I would be using from the IRI website. I then moved on to running statistical analysis on the models with things like Brier score and receiver operating characteristic (ROC). I then looked at a reanalysis of sea surface temperature anomalies over the period of time. I was looking at to see similarities in months where a False Alarm forecast was initialized and similarities in Correct Call initialized months. I was then able to identify 6 areas and create thresholds that if met could help identify if a confident forecast would be a False Alarm or a Correct Call. This project not only improved my research skills but also helped me develop my professional skills through the weekly seminars. For those who are on the fence about graduate school (like I was), I would highly recommend this program. The project along with the graduate panel helped me decide that I would want to pursue a master’s degree once I finish my undergrad degree.
I also wanted to mention my amazing fellow interns who made this program one I will never forget! From exploring Downtown to hiking at Mount Rainier, I truly enjoyed my summer in Seattle.
Project Introduction
Research Poster
