The Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies

Hello my name is Owen Yazzie I am currently a senior majoring in Earth and Environmental Studies at Arizona State University. This summer I was able to participate in an internship for the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES). For my project I worked with Emily L. Norton to develop a Dungeness crab meat quality forecasting management tool, that can assist fisheries in sampling efficiency and provide an estimate for the season opening timelines.

The Dungeness crab fishery is one of the most economically valued fisheries in the Pacific Northwest. The pickout rate, referred to here as meat quality, is monitored every fall along the Washington and Oregon coasts; it must exceed set thresholds before the fishery can open for the season. In my project statistical models were used to forecast when the crab meat quality thresholds will be passed, based on modeled ocean conditions from JISAO’s Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE), a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical model.

My project utilized R, by first matching sampling points with oceanography and then averaged conditions across points from the same observational area. This matching takes into consideration all static, dynamic, and lagged variables. Next, forecasting was then done for the three models used in my project, beta regression, beta regression ncy (no crab year effect), and a GAM. These models were used to predict meat quality for months that the J-SCOPE September forecasts were available and relevant. The date of the meat quality threshold crossing was then interpolated from the day of year and meat quality threshold. The results produced from my project show that all models perform well and show strong agreement in their forecasts. Key variables such as longitude, sea surface height, chlorophyll and day of year have a significant impact on meat quality. The models also suggest that meat quality threshold crossing is occurring earlier in recent years, possibly having an impact on monitoring and management.

I was able to gain numerous professional and technical skills throughout the tenure of my project. I met and connected with numerous people such as my fellow interns, NOAA affiliate Shannon Brown who took me on a research cruise at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS). The CICOES summer internship was a very enjoyable experience that brought with it many valuable opportunities.

Project introduction

Research poster