CLIMATE
Types of Research
- Atmospheric research including Arctic circulation and climate variability
- Air-sea interaction
- Carbon cycle
- Aerosol
- Land-surface hydrology
Affiliated Programs
Research Highlights – 2023
Collaboration Team to Coordinate OAR’s Coupled Arctic System Modeling Activities Focused on Sea Ice Prediction
The goal of our proposed Sea Ice Modeling Collaboration (SIMC) Team is to coordinate OAR’s various sea ice focused modeling activities to advance NOAA’s sea ice predictions in the Arctic. Specifically, our activities will be to communicate, collaborate, and coordinate coupled-modeling activities across GLERL, PSL, and GFDL with the goals of: 1) improving sea ice preditions; 2) assessing efforts based on the gaps and needs identified from the cross-NOAA Sea Ice Forecasting 2021 workshop report; 3) coordinating the use of statistical and deterministic approaches for predictions; and, 4) understanding operational needs and opportunities for transitioning research products to NOAA’s Arctic sea ice services. We will accomplish our goals through regular meetings with SIMC members, other NOAA LO and international partners to exchange information and define specific observing, modeling and product gaps to address.
Principal Investigator: Jinlun Zhang
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Changes, and Impacts
Task II-Arctic
The goals of the Project are to 1) To improve our understanding and communication of Arctic change and local to global impacts to scientists, policy makers, the Arctic Council, fisheries managers, and the public, 2) Improve NOAA’s operational sea ice and weather forecasts and knowledge of physical impacts on ecosystems in the pan-Arctic and Alaskan Arctic, and 3) Assess climate models uncertainties, and provide projections of Arctic climate at pan-Arctic, and regional scales. 4) Collect data necessary to support enhanced seasonal-range sea-ice forecasting and recure historical ocean and weather data to support the reanalysis projects.
Principal Investigator: Muyin Wang
Research Theme: Polar Studies
Task II-CFC Tracer
Tracers provide unambiguous evidence of waters that have been exposed to anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere. We measure tracers in the ocean to quantify how much of the ocean communicates with the atmosphere on timescales relevant to society (decades), and how quickly the ocean absorbs man-made gases and heat. In addition, we are characterizing the ocean distribution, and source to the atmosphere, of Nitrous Oxide, an important greenhouse gas that is increasing in the atmosphere.
Principal Investigator: Rolf Sonnerup
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Changes, and Impacts
The Argo Project: Global Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability
The U.S. Argo Float Consortium (UW, Scripps, Woods Hole, PMEL, and AOML) forms the U.S. component of the international Argo Program, a global array of profiling floats. Beginning in 2000, Argo has transformed physical oceanography, contributing data to over 4500 publications, 200 PhD theses, and many reanalysis applications in operational oceanography. The U.S. Float Consortium plays leadership roles including technology improvement in floats, production of floats, deployment planning and logistics, communications, data management, coordination, and education and outreach. At UW 90-100 floats are fabricated and deployed per year as part of this project. The data from this array addresses physical aspects of the ocean circulation, and, increasingly, the biogeochemical properties of the ocean.
Principal Investigators: Stephen Riser, Alison Gray
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Change, and Impacts
Northwest Water Year Impacts and Resilience Planning
This project is designed to improve understanding of drought, climate variability, and climate change for water and natural resources managers in the Pacific Northwest. Several research and outreach components are co-produced with managers to advance drought response and climate resilience planning and action in the region. These components are (1) an annual water year meeting co-designed with academic researchers and water managers in the region; (2) an annual water year impacts assessment that connects climate conditions with sectoral impacts by synthesizing water year conditions and impacts for multiple sectors in the region using a survey and the annual water year meeting; (3) document review analysis that evaluates the extent to which water system operators are currently assessing and planning for long-term changes in drought and climate through existing water system plans.
Principal Investigator: Crystal Raymond
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Change, and Impacts
Seasonal to Sub-Seasonal Guidance for Underserved Communities in Alaska
Seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) forecasts offer significant potential to support decisions related to subsistence, search and rescue, and transportation. This project seeks to improve the communication of S2S information on sea ice for coastal communities in Alaska. We engage regional hub communities in Alaska to develop a deeper understanding of community-level decision contexts, preferences, and priorities as well as NWS capacities. This assessment will lead to a report that outlines recommendations on tools and methods for better communicating information in Alaska regional hub communities related to sea ice.
Principal Investigator: Nathan Kettle (UAF)
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Change, and Impacts
Application of a Data-Driven Method for Predicting Ice Jams at Select Locations in Alaska
Ice jam flooding is one of the most frequently declared disasters in Alaska. This project will advance S2S guidance of Alaska river ice breakup by applying data science principles to observational data sets. This project will: a) develop a statistical model(s) to estimate the occurrence of river ice breakup date and the severity (i.e., thermal vs. dynamic breakup); b) test the methodology at various locations; and c) deliver final code(s) to ATPG. These new spring outlooks will provide guidance that may be complemented with localized information for underserved communities that are off the road system and in observational-data sparse areas.
Principal Investigator: Peter Bieniek (UAF)
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Change, and Impacts
NOAA funding for the Arctic Report Card
NOAA’s annual Arctic Report Card is a peer-reviewed, internationally recognized snapshot of “the state of the Arctic”. It includes reports physical and biological indicators and perspectives on human and societal impacts of changing Arctic from multiple viewpoints, including Indigenous peoples of Alaska.
Principal Investigator: Richard Thoman (UAF)
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Change, and Impacts
JPSS High-Latitude Proving Ground: Satellite Science and Innovation
This proposal continues the partnership between the University of Alaska Fairbanks’ Geographic Information Network of Alaska (UAF GINA) and the NOAA NESDIS Joint Polar Satellite System Program (JPSS). This partnership provides a portfolio of low-latency, polar-orbiting satellite products to Alaskan and Arctic stakeholders. At the heart of this effort are two direct-broadcast satellite antennas in interior Alaska and a computer cluster that generates products from each pass received. This effort contributes to NOAA’s strategic plan to be a “weather-ready nation” by providing forecasters, hazard managers, and researchers with vital information to prepare for weather, water, volcano, and wildland fire events.
Principal Investigator: Jennifer Delamere (UAF)
Research Theme: Environmental Data Science
Tools for Drought Monitoring and Assessment in Alaska
Drought has emerged as an episodically important environment event for Alaska, but the paucity of in-situ observations and Alaska’s size and diverse climates and environments, in most of the state unique in the United States, renders traditional drought monitoring methods of limited or no value. This project is developing tools that are appropriate for Alaska that can be implemented by NWS Alaska Region with an emphasis on utilizing recent advances in climate reanalysis information.
Principal Investigator: Richard Thoman (UAF)
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Change, and Impacts
Innovative Technology for Arctic Exploration (Task II-ITAE)
The Innovative Technology for Arctic Exploration program was formed in 2015 to build new operational capabilities for NOAA that connect the disparate pieces of NOAA’s Arctic observing system and explore remote territories and emerging scientific themes related to NOAA’s Arctic mission goals. ITAE delivers the innovative technologies needed to support the scientific and engineering communities and lead the future of ocean observations pole to pole. These new sensors and platforms are designed to creatively address gaps in NOAA’s operational capacity to improve the basic understanding of the Arctic environment and to cost-effectively monitor ongoing changes.
Principal Investigator: Calvin Mordy
Research Theme: Polar Studies
Observing System Analysis and Effectiveness Research
The Observing Systems Research project performs data and modeling studies to identify significant ocean-atmosphere interaction patterns and better understand their linkages to weather and climate anomalies. Our objectives include improving the effectiveness of the global ocean observing system, improving our awareness and understanding of present weather and climate conditions and helping to improve upon our current ability to forecast high-impact events, including hurricane intensification. Research is also focused on improving sharing of science data and information, developing frameworks to improve compliance with Findable-Accessible-Interoperable-Reusable (FAIR) data principles, and improving integration of data into research and forecasting efforts.
Principal Investigator: Andy Chiodi and Kevin O’Brien
Research Theme: Climate and Ocean Variability, Change, and Impacts
Task II-Atmos Chem
The objective of this project is to characterize the chemical, physical, optical, and cloud nuclei properties of marine boundary layer aerosols and to identify the processes controlling these properties. These measurements are needed to improve climate models and in particular to better understand aerosol cloud interactions. During this performance period the project completed a field study in Tillamook, OR using uncrewed aircraft (UAS) to measure aerosol and cloud droplet properties. The project also continued aerosol measurements in the Arctic.
Principal Investigator: Tim Bates
Research Theme: Environmental Chemistry